Producer Pay Forecast: December 11, 2025

We are still awaiting the release of certain USDA data, including the September and October cold storage and dairy products reports.

Upcoming release dates for USDA reports:

      December 15th- Dairy Products (September production)

      December 22nd- Milk Production (November)

      December 23rd- Cold Storage (Last published with August data)

Since the last forecast, cheese prices have come down significantly. While the NDPSR prices lag several weeks behind the CME spot market, the pace at which cheese prices have fallen will speed up the decline in values at the NDPSR. While spot butter holds at $1.4775/lb., spot blocks have come down to $1.3475/lb.(12/9). This decline in cheese values is not all bad, as it has lessened the large gap between Class prices. Dry whey continues to offer support to Class III values as prices remain in the mid $0.70's/lb., and demand continues to grow. As we await the last few months of data from the cold storage report, it is unclear whether export and domestic demand have been strong enough to keep supplies steady. The decline in cheese prices at the CME may indicate an oversupply issue.

I will send further updates following the release of the remaining USDA reports this month.

As always, please feel free to reach out with any questions! I hope you are all having a wonderful holiday season.

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