Producer Pay Forecast: July 28, 2026

While some commodities recovered at the start of July, prices have weakened again. Despite the current downturn, prices are forecast to recover quickly, but the upside is likely to remain limited. The forecast has been updated to reflect the latest market movement.

CME Spot Market:

• Blocks recovered through July and reached $1.6700/lb. (7/22) before falling back down to $1.5550/lb. (7/28)
• Butter was on a steady slide downward for much of July, before experiencing a sharp decline to $1.3800/lb. (7/28)
• Nonfat dry milk has come back to more familiar pricing levels, but after a run down to $1.4000/lb., prices recovered slightly to $1.4200/lb. (7/28)
• Dry whey has remained comparatively steady, but also experienced a decline on 7/28, landing at $0.6550/lb.

U.S Milk Production:

• 24-State milk production grew 2.39% year-over-year (YOY) in June
• 24-State milking herd grew 2.05% in June (YOY)—landing at 9.231 million head
• New York milk production grew 1.6% in June (YOY)

Cold Storage:

• U.S butter stocks came in 6.6% below prior year in June, totaling 332.1 million pounds
• American cheese stocks fell 1.7% YOY in June
• Total cheese stocks were down 0.8% in June (YOY)

Allee's happy to answer any questions or chat about the markets.  Don't hesitate to reach out!

PS: Sometimes there's a delay between this forecast release and it being posted online. If you'd like to receive as soon as possible, send Allee an email at acoombe@uncdairy.com to be added to the distribution list!