Producer Pay Forecast: September 8, 2026

U.S. milk production remains elevated.

• July milk production increased 2.2% year-over-year (YOY)
• June production was revised higher, up to 3.1% YOY

U.S. herd expansion continues to be the driver of increased milk supplies as milk per cow remains muted.

• The 24-state herd reached 9.267 million head, up 185,000 (YOY July)
• Milk per cow grew just 0.1% over the same period

New York seems to be following the national trend closely.

• NY milk production was up 2.2% (YOY July)
• The NY milking herd grew 11,000 head over the same period
• Milk per cow was up 0.5% YOY in July, coming in above the national level

Cheese production is growing, but the mix has continued to change.

• Total cheese production grew 2.1% (YOY July)
• This was driven in part by a 30.4% increase in Gouda production, a 4.1% increase in Italian-type cheese production, and continued growth in cottage cheese varieties
• American cheese production fell 1.1% and cheddar production fell 1.7% (YOY July)
• American cheese stocks were down just 0.2% (YOY July)
• Total cheese stocks grew 0.4% (YOY July)

If 40 lb. block supplies tighten, class III values could find support in the coming months. If Europe continues to experience tighter cheese supplies, demand is likely to increase internationally as well.

• Butter production grew 5.5% (YOY July)
• Year-to-date through July, butter production has grown 5.92%
• Butter stocks were down 3% (YOY July)

Nonfat dry milk movement remains constructive.

• NFDM production increased 26.6% (YOY July)
• NFDM stocks fell 5% over the same period
• Exports grew significantly over the same period

Growing milk and commodity supplies have continued to add pressure to prices in the near future.

If you have any questions, reach out to Allee Coombe at acoombe@uncdairy.com

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