Producer Pay Forecast: April 21, 2026
Markets continue to work through elevated milk supplies, but recent price behavior suggests higher prices on the horizon, especially compared to the outlook just four months ago. Class IV values remain supported, while protein markets and export demand continue to drive near-term direction.
CME Spot Market: April 21, 2026
- Butter: $1.7200/lb.
- Blocks: $1.6000/lb.
- NDM: $2.2150/lb.
- Dry whey: $0.7000/lb.
Spot butter prices are likely to continue tracking international levels to maintain global competitiveness, though a gradual increase is projected throughout the year. If cream supplies tighten and domestic demand continues to grow, additional upside is possible, reducing reliance on export channels.
Spot nonfat dry milk has moved decisively above prior historic levels, exceeding the previously recorded high for CME spot at $2.11/lb. (12/2013), by more than $0.10/lb. Current production and stock levels remain supportive of these values. As we move beyond May, the gap between CME spot and NDPSR pricing should begin to shrink, with elevated spot values feeding into the NDPSR and further supporting Class IV pricing.
Cheese markets are relatively steady. Spot blocks ranged in the mid $1.50's to mid $1.60's/lb. throughout April. Anecdotal reports of tighter availability have surfaced, though overall production remains elevated. Export demand has continued to play a role in absorbing excess supply, particularly as cheese production is being driven by strong demand for whey components.
Spot dry whey markets remain rangebound but supported between $0.68-$0.71/lb. High demand for whey protein isolate and whey protein concentrate 80+ continues to absorb supply that would usually be headed for commodity dry whey production.
As the year progresses, Class IV strength and protein demand are expected to continue providing support to producer pay prices. While export movement will remain a high priority, current market conditions point to more stability at present levels. Opportunities for additional upside exist if domestic demand increases and barring any severe disruption to export markets.
As always, please feel free to reach out with any questions!
